Welcome to the latest edition of “The Conversation.”

This year, we’ve consistently talked to you about the development of the BRIC countries, particularly the question of how their growth will change the face of international trade. This month, we link to the latest report from PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PWC), which for the last two years has been analysing the E7 emerging economies: BRIC countries plus Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey.

PWC offers some striking analysis, including an assertion that by 2050, the E7 economies will have become 50 percent larger than the current G7 economies (United States, Japan, Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy and Canada). At today’s market exchange rates, the E7 group now comprise around 25 percent of the total of G7 economies.

Any way you look at it, this is a dramatic shift in economic power. Interestingly, you won’t hear this view in the popular press, which instead has been obsessively dedicating acres of column inches to the economic stories of Russia and China. Sure, these two countries should continue their rapid growth. Yet they both face the significant challenge of ageing populations. What a contrast to aspirants such as India, Indonesia and Brazil, which have youth on their sides.

As a localiser, an interesting aspect of these transitions is the shift from predominantly Western economies in the G7 (excluding Japan, of course) to the Asian, South American and Eastern European economies of the E7. At a cultural level, this provides both challenges and opportunities.

There are, of course, other factors driving these economic changes. For those of you interested in such matters, I recommend “The World is Flat” by Thomas Freidman and, an alternate view, “Redefining Global Strategy” by Pankaj Ghemawat. Also, specifically about China’s growth, Will Hutton’s “The Writing on the Wall” is a good read.

As ever, I hope you enjoy this edition and keep the feedback coming! It really helps us in our efforts to bring you the information you need.

Best regards,
Gary Muddyman
Managing Director/CEO
Oxford Conversis

 

BY 2050, THE E7 ECONOMIES WILL HAVE BECOME 50 PERCENT LARGER THAN THE CURRENT G7 ECONOMIES
 
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